外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 " j; u) L- z8 k( X2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞& X' U& R9 e2 T4 F+ M
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 n1 ?$ U, a1 W k" w" K4 l: C
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , G0 J* e6 E( ?/ ^" S0 J 7 {$ J' Z0 |) S& b1 ~' s( V9 B+ ]. n 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。' Y8 z( X* d t1 l
. |( f$ y" F, G# w& L( \8 t 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 $ M! z7 r/ |* X2 U* A$ z$ j/ ?9 _% v" g% a
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。. z4 g. k" j/ ]5 @7 T' b* r$ d8 z: _
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ! a, b% ~8 A* m0 B1 e p 9 o a0 H1 y0 L& A |& R 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 # i5 o) ?% o" ^5 V* Y 2 ~. @& \% k- f, E6 u3 x（责任编辑：杨海洋）9 L! N' _ e3 M+ m! o- Q1 S8 Y7 N
, ?5 ?3 i- i W& h+ hRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters7 f) V ?3 h+ p$ q$ @
3 i* o% r$ v: K5 }) oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' H3 _% l# O& p: {$ z
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. W5 C4 j) J+ z9 t: C0 D# H7 _6 J: i' a- ~2 v6 R- ^( _% F
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 U2 b) u% V0 y4 m0 O- y' c 9 o) l- Q/ i; N+ W# g9 K; mAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. " d/ Z; ^$ q; _- c2 e! r
( h: h, t: G# HRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ' r+ Q$ y! K& s% u6 r3 c0 K
& V' J+ ~$ h" ZFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % X3 C1 U5 A- C8 Z2 k4 f `4 N0 g$ i. e/ _8 L" I
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % b* \0 e) l$ O& `- w F # A) v7 U+ Q! v- G; P2 D2 z"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + O9 I) J; T' J0 d$ y9 v
; r% |: K: i7 LIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & U' N& S. t3 y! U) v: b! Q: x
6 j5 ~5 Y# @: h' R9 q& c2 `Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. S$ O% `' q8 ?6 s6 T/ F' L4 {& G1 j& V! B
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % ^: {, E, \" l0 l+ f/ B& v1 @( n+ l* W: u
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 4 C/ n! @; H; D$ Z G
+ [0 V0 {' U1 r+ Z! e& @# ~China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ ?' J% C2 M, v/ Z( u$ M# Y+ L: \. a
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 i, D% l9 P+ N+ T) b1 h# B: Y9 v: ]/ y: r) a# o5 [
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 ~) _; c# Z; X/ l# U) R& U, p4 f
8 u4 Y1 c2 s6 t+ l. g"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) F2 C: I9 A# S h# o& I4 j0 B7 p3 p! [! G" `) P/ D
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ( P) P& i" b# N
