B* L! h9 N% T, ?( L 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 ) z9 t ^7 ~* b" X% \! w8 X 5 q% b& ^- f/ t 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ; `' w9 g" w$ @) N( l 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 ( w% E" G% [0 h# }8 Y: X& M! @' P2 Y$ N" S* C/ a! J, n
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 / S2 T/ c* \4 c: X 0 v) F* p0 k' P7 M（责任编辑：杨海洋） 1 l( v( F$ c9 L1 T0 x! ~5 G; D! J* A1 M$ i* V) q- ?$ r
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters : H0 l S7 `3 f2 M2 }$ i, G * [6 }( o) m3 h- DBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 U+ q D# |1 T, ?- p5 P- o8 H, c1 K6 Q' a% z
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. X6 C, \ m: t/ g
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 2 n6 n9 ~* c. f; @7 O, c; V
8 ]# B# y/ F; `) \, o; tAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ; f7 Y" C/ z. R: F6 K5 j
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ! Q A* ]: D( K
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( G* H; F% O+ j8 a2 P% D
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * ]. H% z. c, j
/ j0 l' C. h/ ?5 p, ?& \"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; D' C2 ~; f. B3 b0 {2 e. F; J$ C& c8 T) N! i! M* H6 b% Y
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ' K1 y( q- ~2 D# p( L( ^' V 8 u; Q4 i# {0 J7 s- vGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " O$ I; j& Y1 J5 J% K, J5 l% ~( R4 [+ p% n! i/ O- e/ `5 x3 I( m. _
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ( n( ?5 H9 g( z" i4 F
D) l8 t/ H( K! ]) [4 RUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! _: D, w, B+ H& e3 E9 C
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & {! Y4 E5 f/ p6 a' ]. P' ~5 J3 f: B7 A+ h8 ?: t
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 x! ^) @4 v5 ]( y
0 Y( t6 i, [2 q; b4 r* v7 RInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ! \3 E. V# P; m% `/ L
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 9 Y3 x) u0 r- A0 p* f% \ T7 O! Z0 n2 v
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * C- [* x( a3 z/ j2 s$ k " _7 [# m) j+ _1 D. H" O9 N( WThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
