外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年- }! D* o* z7 ~3 `
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 " F/ g) a1 o: R ?/ X( H8 y $ ^: i, H, P, D6 ^ I+ l$ H- A# S 1 @/ o1 ]! j7 q9 M( [ S6 M2 u- L
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 H) @' z: z8 \. V
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。4 q8 `) t" E. `& @$ e2 V; Y; [5 n
g! W" i" y. Z. W3 ?+ @$ T 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ( y% `) U# x: C W . s: q7 |1 u2 {0 o 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) ` S" F \5 R, v8 u3 g, F* x
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。1 d# |; f I2 ~
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 3 R; W0 K3 d5 O n e % f/ p# U" q0 l5 z. j9 u! J 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 `, X# g' O. i5 x; X# w8 l6 v# D: S& K% {+ N3 i; n+ X$ y （责任编辑：杨海洋）% L* A. |, ^" U0 v1 p% G$ @8 P0 b
; x; x6 p5 P: N8 i/ B: Q! o' ~Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & K, r; N1 n V* @6 `0 h) X8 g ; _$ `! M4 y# r2 LBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' L: O6 h1 g1 p4 l
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 S- H7 O) U4 T# g% H0 `
* ^- i+ U- g. k) v3 A% Z. gLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + v. B% }# c4 v1 n4 J( U
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 7 G7 z8 a# ~' e% X. _& K
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. - N! t6 t% A2 o1 E: K V9 g 2 ?5 d. y) ^5 m+ A/ Z, G$ AFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ( a0 S' g9 C) ~1 p$ o
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 9 @* i: z. R q9 f& H+ k- H % {3 s6 D5 t* R8 c5 T5 W"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ' x/ p# J1 Y' B- [8 D6 ^8 g; i
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 3 z% @; s2 F, K) U9 x2 `1 _ 8 H+ S9 `3 `% C8 YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. % H+ c! H* |- ~3 s ' f x* U) T( g* qThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * s, f3 \7 \' _* Y
+ t& z' ^3 ]" X& {9 E; M) m+ RUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. % J1 }* e; u q( K. f# [' V H0 i# Y5 n1 E5 h# _5 i
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 m" U0 i' v2 G" p( S K
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. % Z% K' I6 \1 g, b6 B* [) d" b' J 2 ?9 e4 R8 U1 M4 V% J% xInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 6 A# ~1 R6 Y' w! M
. F3 y4 T' U$ o) P% f! M"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 8 p9 m! z2 M" S
1 n5 d0 n9 ^5 U! ]: Q1 J$ k( G$ KGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. & l( k/ ? T, J+ ^9 Q
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
