外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年6 B& P0 l8 Y7 `" c
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 9 ?6 ]& [, L% Y & I6 s9 r7 o# n1 v) f i* |4 g N( n. y8 J' P& L v) _中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 $ m% Q3 S. n0 P7 M7 d0 }7 B# u; k0 @$ _. X' j9 Q
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。+ n% ^+ L( ~& v
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。4 S3 N0 c+ S: S
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。/ q8 l3 d7 i3 a5 W @
9 ~" C) h& o# @7 _4 ?. b 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 " l. i7 X& O0 S+ C7 ? 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 & u# D5 L1 _( A4 V* g% a+ p1 K" v W* J6 j( D
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 _* @3 H$ ^3 U. l2 \/ E5 }
) B! M; P8 b3 t3 s- d" j （责任编辑：杨海洋）# H1 p& H _5 q) O6 u- W8 m1 R
, h+ v4 x4 Q; w/ \' [$ X R1 oRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters / a. F; f5 P5 c/ R$ x& W7 z" Y0 [5 ?) a& ]3 D: }8 V2 o
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 l1 I; F5 K5 y+ |1 ~. o6 N: M1 _1 ^3 p) ?8 G
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , Z2 ?: w# s& }, _. M9 f' `, }& h/ X 5 T6 u5 I3 m2 ]/ YLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 1 D* L2 {! O v# \; G$ m 1 _2 \! W e! ]2 c# }After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 2 }7 h. _3 H* u3 T5 S
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 U" p5 Q4 ]" q2 `1 w ! a T# L. a; T' wFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. . @% @- ~, }. ~5 {4 K& v 5 M8 ^- G/ ^4 cThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. B2 u0 T1 C3 }# `; J( j+ k& L
, [* T2 q0 s& |"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 V9 h9 O l B " ]3 _1 M6 T9 S+ {, k1 EIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. / F; O( |! o8 I' y0 }' }
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ' v$ t. }5 h8 E4 K( ?$ Q
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. . j* B1 u/ A" {- q
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 y; e D3 _/ o% G: t: F
+ ~% @7 m1 H9 _7 m# w* d0 d- |" n% TChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". + C) [) b; C' _: K- w, q
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # B2 `% V# m6 M4 ~6 m" r$ |1 x, j" ~" J, f8 y& I
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % l/ k1 m$ r9 l2 k$ I7 P
W3 U0 Y f; {/ Y: ?6 ^"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 \( h; @9 L, l, y8 W; m& P% r ( F0 t, ?/ g7 M) NGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - K$ _0 z8 n* r- ^
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
