外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年: E0 {7 [6 [3 `" f# ~$ J9 \) _6 z
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 0 a" ^$ y# s i 2 x; w7 @2 k9 S$ q . | N7 @& }- _+ N
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。$ @7 T X0 N4 u: x* A
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 , W+ Q# L1 [& }/ F+ Z8 g 4 D! d5 B3 @) R% X! E" K 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。# _( R$ T' N, H/ P" B0 c6 j- ~5 l
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。, R" J) u7 R( N
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # }8 n0 {+ @. t: h+ h, k: W 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 4 R" o' A+ b, j+ T. O3 {$ p 8 c. J' a$ m+ I 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 C2 f8 J. U' ^" {5 B1 W- h
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters- [$ _6 t! y* r! U# M
m' B1 w) F/ xBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 y0 `7 H4 H9 C& c4 h' I! H u* n4 Z( [9 B9 f! R
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. - g& `. }: \, |$ H! D
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / v* |; p* I5 z. t8 @6 V0 e 7 U" [) g7 w/ RAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : U4 \ V+ C. I, x( S
. e5 ~7 t: b: J2 @Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. " Q% e& H4 [1 r* Y/ X
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. - }1 j8 s+ ?7 B* j+ A* s# [ L
" `( V6 X$ z' A% m9 ?1 [6 j" BThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! S8 K: m/ ^8 B/ P- @" O5 |3 }
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + u3 c& _: I9 A6 }! I$ n |2 b( I; B M5 Q( {: U% [7 U8 [4 F3 `, S% [
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 A+ ~9 L: L$ s3 T / F$ t8 B- M- l# O. l @) @Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 M; d" I1 r% k" b5 ?
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! t( ]; ?8 b0 X3 k7 I
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + M8 ?, R; Z* p" J. x% s' r7 ~- {8 P3 S4 n- k) q0 h, E% x; d
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 ]' J2 f- p8 ~7 s! V& h4 x9 J 0 l0 \% `: I: G8 v6 O* EIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! l& K) j; m/ v4 z5 n* e- y# W
, g% `! j/ H% |& KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 5 \0 O ~7 B& o, t- W6 C
4 z, m. h+ L. F$ B* G5 W"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ) q: s+ ]$ N( \1 F
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 H* [( G3 s- g# d2 \1 r4 F2 x2 _3 r4 T
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
