外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年+ H/ G5 r* T& G% O8 I( u3 k
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 " E" c# w' k& _3 y+ a) N5 c. s5 y. d2 E5 Q
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。& _! H) T6 T+ h
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。+ J( j0 k. S$ [& ~% a
/ G: ]4 D) N- T3 v6 E6 C$ M5 J# @ 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。/ o3 H& S1 E. {! [& L' |9 K
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。% D8 l k- T9 ^- Q4 R: K( K
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 0 [/ ^% C- Y S9 j# `2 r/ e 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。2 F) M8 D t+ |! ^% {6 q
% t, j( F- B/ _0 V! i/ U9 M3 ?$ ? 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % H0 S- ^7 ^1 |% m7 q0 t8 }" |. n9 G" l9 a# z （责任编辑：杨海洋）5 W* _& k3 ]! H
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ( L- @5 R; U9 H! |1 {/ _ K+ e- t" r* K+ u6 e6 `. w
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' I* }" Y; E, E, T
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 r; K2 P! }9 }8 y! Z+ y( c( ]
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) P8 A M4 Z2 x, {( h0 ^ c; C9 q
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 4 J4 p3 O/ g8 e% j# m4 l# K% M/ ? 2 U) {' v' a) R* p8 c5 _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & g1 g2 V- i; {5 M9 j, N% a
0 i/ z \- |& G$ I. t% `First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # ?/ g: A# ^6 \1 Z+ j
" S; i+ |( b. f' }+ } N# g9 vThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. # [3 C/ w# w- H1 |! F0 q t. M O) y ; k: p& I! v0 t8 w, e8 M"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. " H( a* e9 u% ]) E0 f: f
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( S$ B; S" Z4 |: _2 }7 I % a# ?$ ~3 Y6 i1 y" I# mGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 6 M! q# @ U3 f$ a a9 Q
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - _, q4 c/ H e- \" `- L
3 v& \) {$ e0 Q% T5 IUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 o3 p" c3 Z; w! S
* ?* u" ^. M# m: W3 C+ R" b. RChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 5 w3 Z D- B W0 c
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # m* T& F' R5 e. }) ~% a" `
9 {- D3 D( I. zInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. : Z# F' f8 e, U, ~6 P, S$ Y& S4 Z
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ S6 o0 {# l/ ~+ s- C& j
1 Z. P: ?$ l7 e, i7 IGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 O7 k1 T0 k4 \) f7 S9 _/ W: S- R1 `6 R% @& U( G m& x! i1 n) u
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
