% y# `6 U9 K+ r9 t中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。/ F) V7 g" p ~% C9 F8 `6 i
; s7 Y% ^0 d& \9 l3 l 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # `6 Z; Z& [8 U' f, [ 0 o1 Z2 c* p9 ]6 T2 m( }4 t; H& O3 W- b 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 , e/ E( u# Y( v% {2 G) o9 p# o ) @$ N5 x4 }( d6 @- c# K 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 5 O8 V7 K9 h0 X* w3 d * I" Z. q+ a+ U l5 ?0 [9 n 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。; Y J E7 ?" \5 @" t6 k
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。" ~# S2 N1 |3 p( K0 Z: |* O; v
% A/ r+ }6 p3 @% A' U 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 `- s0 r$ ]: S) d" P" I 6 K; m, i/ k w& i. E（责任编辑：杨海洋）/ u9 Z/ z6 _8 t! R1 N1 R
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ! n+ ?7 h, U) q) g2 Q" i* k1 X7 p1 }% C$ V4 P
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 q {$ y V' i
( v: p: s. V& w6 y3 J8 m! XA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( |- a: [% f" J$ X: M# h: J) N7 t7 u
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 9 M+ i, `1 j" P1 W+ o) L
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ P: ]- `$ Z0 t; V. N
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 9 J2 U! d0 f$ ]& d. W
) y5 L y5 J; K' TFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ~( o( f% H5 s5 {" c2 F1 B' G3 c
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' C: v; N7 l2 _. A/ j" T% S) b }" s- L3 {; B" n
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. % Y, W2 _, W% T: x- s3 s# _
1 y- @. W( a* q! [: P3 TIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 8 s- z3 D! ~3 X/ P: e3 g j
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. $ m1 I* R' I* f/ _( K * b7 }2 b; U1 e+ M7 g! T- BThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. # e: k3 Z: V: w( {
( o$ e% w# m# l% H: h7 t3 AUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! d, Z6 }/ k" @# e7 D& G! O. I$ _1 R _
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". , k5 n* g* d! ]
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . M- {! U1 V) B- }' s/ ?6 x
. R# h. H3 O% x6 D# c' l. W8 KInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % T, ?8 C: W' N% c- N( f& M9 u' [
) D6 Z4 G5 P* b( X"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; W7 _/ i/ M: ~" q8 X& i4 u& B* {3 _ X) k) n
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / p0 l& r! b7 M# ~, u
