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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。1 [1 G6 |6 l. X0 Y! A
2 @# g3 o# {* I; n1 G/ z 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。! |- `3 I2 n& c( t, w/ H4 }0 Z
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 t# R7 T. L: ` Z. W! E: }: w6 }2 r2 i( N) x9 T, u; `
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 x" }# H8 c" K0 [! x3 H
- c( m; _# t. k; _ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ) i0 g- O) r1 z 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 $ L% h) w% g: s. l R( o8 F, o " ?. t1 O9 [$ ^* ^ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 4 ]- E u7 w8 m+ Q; m+ [" F* z 6 z6 t* i7 [/ W% o8 d: P' L: { n9 ^9 W) I（责任编辑：杨海洋）0 n- l+ g: A* u% N& F3 e. o
* B' l, C/ E- r1 }' D- BRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 9 v: B: r' i: f0 C$ C( k " H5 a+ \! r& |: `BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. , f( C6 O. t; o- e d$ b% y. `# E$ Y
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , s7 s2 k) k8 i! k 2 h8 ?! x, m/ r# l: fLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 0 x6 Z# q. B$ d# N5 N7 x- t$ A. _
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # l$ Z- U5 y+ `
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 X- g. H) F" b& J( C! `9 E
0 `# n( a$ D+ I$ xFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ! ?! D$ g% _5 F; p" B: i g. Q7 q" K; W% P
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 H8 D, w5 p& \% I. a( G
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 M5 _* i; d: a4 }6 \
+ @" v: C) Z2 I. d& uIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. : b* q0 U9 p8 }9 _6 x6 A4 e 5 \) `- ~' I8 G, M+ @; V& z. ?) uGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 n0 G$ Y# |/ C
' V9 x3 l* z/ g5 Y2 T) _4 x: W( \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. & S1 O: F5 c: D' c2 G6 N# Z0 s0 D S$ g$ C; x3 n! N7 o
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # ?. m& i# m3 @; K$ K C. h$ N % ]5 B) ~ _, }$ J6 [1 qChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 3 O2 l" I I2 }5 I, C1 i7 D0 H
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / K& O, O* k- C( J* B9 k. b3 s! ]
) d- U% @- e( O- n' H4 A( F8 A! WInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' Q- a0 g( `/ H3 a
% m/ `" _9 }) S/ x"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ' I# J& R* D! c. R" w
& H. g* _) F7 J2 I# B" e4 QGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 @+ ?( O3 n7 ^: R7 a4 t4 T/ {7 S) ]0 O( n' M/ T+ e
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
