外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ! r5 g) C0 Q1 s2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞0 j7 a' x4 B: a+ T* Y; u0 V
- h! a$ W* U) @# o( B* a- g ) t( ? c; g1 ?' ?8 [中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。6 q9 I g P3 B. H
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 8 _ f5 J6 W; w. f7 {% I" G+ u" k) Q* K" z; W
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 1 s( K- h% K- {$ x3 {* n3 o0 S 9 ~1 W8 L* m; O# B 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 / e1 V' O5 E& S9 r6 y9 g' o: ^4 A% g, W1 {" _' |* o
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 3 f; C, H$ T) ~, k0 ^/ n 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * N$ b) Q5 K. s0 I; I. L ( {( {7 ^! ~ B" v/ x, b% I 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 , |% m: k Y4 B" ~, l2 ]3 H2 @1 G* I- v# g" V9 a* ?5 p （责任编辑：杨海洋） 6 G9 K: r0 W6 U9 j & x/ l, G5 L* }$ d ERunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters % D, t ~7 D# v* j % T% `' f' W, H6 t1 b6 ?( mBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 d, l' w$ c- P. R$ `& ]6 D5 V* ]" i! B; {2 e# w& N
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & d! `# ?& ?% H$ @% _' r# a
0 b% j* [9 k, \- eLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. * ?* d0 y( B" ]: n; B
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 1 h0 Z( t! k0 ~8 {' T" d0 _ / m4 W4 [% R7 u2 p3 Z, ERoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , G) J# z6 M. ]9 u, @ 5 P0 R' A. e* nFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 p$ O4 f1 a& _4 \1 x, X, j" B
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ E7 W' L4 a' m% l) e0 o) |5 B5 [: x4 {0 E8 ^
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. : [1 ^) O5 @! {1 a) Y) I P% X
( f% Q" s- U0 d3 FIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ |0 d8 o+ o* B, [1 Z* |) n3 w% ?) d$ x! h2 b+ y
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " K1 d# M4 B/ w1 \2 ^
- r' s9 l( n/ j- d5 `That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 4 E w7 d1 v2 E- Z6 Y3 w4 L6 x
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 a. ^0 H3 {" O6 ]4 O / u- f: K0 o4 @( w! j) jChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 8 a |! U8 p8 B# b0 F 1 r1 V9 p* y$ l- R: d& B$ I5 V1 UIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) S: j3 B8 [/ z: M2 t% f: T" c& D! U$ b! P' h
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 9 i6 M* z, i z7 X! [' m2 l' E
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( W" p0 @0 P0 j, P
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " V% s& M( T+ Z
