[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

Ampelmann

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
' C8 X* S+ C) l- U  ~+ L2010年08月19日 14:15   来源：中新社   黄瑞8 p9 h; E& O8 z7 R/ f7 G& I9 J  v
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。人在德国 社区6 O& G. J7 n6 k/ U* l2 F( ~
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　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。
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　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。. [; `. ]! {3 j8 @

, v1 L7 S) {; l: s% owww.csuchen.de　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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8 s+ H& ]4 G0 Q+ q3 d$ w6 D2 B　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。
5 K  C1 z  e4 ]- vwww.csuchen.de　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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（责任编辑：杨海洋）; x" j4 Q  @) c' s& `

& c; B. L5 A* U7 lRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters人在德国 社区8 D" i, a% b" g" Z* r

" ~  M( N8 v, cBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & s2 r5 {# i$ Q2 \' t, _
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. www.csuchen.de# M7 A( k7 K8 J5 z) j2 P
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' V+ o& G# ]) D( B4 P
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
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* J: @0 e3 W" mFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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1 i5 [# v6 D- e/ I  R* O! r: B( nThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. www.csuchen.de- L% m+ J) t6 N: @. T

; G1 a7 j( A' E. X"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # A  O% V* y& }# P, q& S

( |! ~" n( ~' H7 p8 w$ u6 zwww.csuchen.deIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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6 [7 Q; d: r- Cwww.csuchen.deThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 人在德国 社区3 q4 |: k  ^7 Q/ z

8 e% b6 n( S9 @) j! ]% ]人在德国 社区Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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$ F" f* C4 X0 E, vChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". www.csuchen.de, g: i- f5 Y! Q8 A% m

, F+ G8 u! W/ D& `0 _If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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/ s' y& p" }0 F+ f* mInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
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. ]8 l8 c3 A$ {3 j; u; h2 |"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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. L, f$ C" ?: G8 ~  J2 a0 iGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 Q5 O+ q& o  l* s, \
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.