[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

Ampelmann

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
. I; P* c/ c6 O. e2010年08月19日 14:15   来源：中新社   黄瑞# T; g. S8 e+ \( b7 f

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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。# k1 S( G5 u8 n

& Q; L0 z% h" ]5 s6 l3 g2 l, u0 q　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。
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　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。5 H/ [6 w5 p' I" X: F

3 L) |' [% I0 j# d. l　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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9 m, _. D' _6 y* l  [+ W: }, \# B8 k　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。
5 Y4 i7 R# p' n' u* w1 ]　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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& {8 e/ P) v: v　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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3 w& y" {$ L7 b+ u; s3 v. D6 U人在德国 社区（责任编辑：杨海洋）
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5 G( O; U  Z( |2 ?% l5 ]/ M3 _Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : t9 A( T& f# _

) T( _7 G' Y5 M3 CA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. www.csuchen.de  A8 r9 D4 ~+ S& r3 R  N% `
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China.
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
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% I& y/ _: u1 zFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) ]0 N2 e. z1 @1 D
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , S/ c  U) l: z% H  X" w3 y
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 q; f, ]' J# w2 z  p( m/ F; T- ]4 o: d
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. www.csuchen.de, ?% M. A* p/ Y- h/ _, G& [

/ t0 _3 e  a. C9 o& r7 yThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % @# H; M4 E- q* O1 {8 H
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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) f( [) u7 ~: [5 Hwww.csuchen.deChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 6 j6 M5 S1 s; x. A2 T6 X; j: W0 O

( q+ S- U1 {4 \5 P7 x/ n! y9 EInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ; {. \; a% c- N
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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  c9 o- ], ~0 g" B6 W' J' K  rGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! D+ n9 Y8 f+ R2 b
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.