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外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年5 M4 ~$ k) y% }+ x
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞" D! c& h- [/ O: C( i
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" a3 k y! l3 L0 V中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。! F3 O6 n' J2 U
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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. v3 C1 \2 o1 ?0 v( }* j0 Gwww.csuchen.de 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。7 U9 U' L- H- ^2 ]' _( ?
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。- A/ ]+ i/ Y3 [1 n, g
: E+ u/ q& B" E- Q; D+ \ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。9 z2 z, y6 ]6 F" Z, Z. j9 D
" o- \' g; n! N; a0 x1 n* o' m, l+ ?（责任编辑：杨海洋）. w# U+ D: f; d' |6 o
0 _3 D) o/ z+ [/ h0 E. i8 @Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows.
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& @2 [0 N0 R S: P OA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & U+ I' d* @' |* J# |7 a9 `- ]
2 b8 M9 A) e0 x3 v. w3 U8 m# i( mLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. www.csuchen.de2 \5 n/ X4 l/ ]) R4 l
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 x8 ?+ D. u* ]3 J
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 人在德国 社区& d/ b- i9 p" |7 L7 Q
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 4 a: K- E/ M. |% c1 \
z; E, g; H5 u* w/ I人在德国 社区In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 人在德国 社区3 ~* L" T2 i" z1 j
# T Z6 {* C7 v: T, wThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 人在德国 社区- R6 d9 g2 f1 w1 L, A+ k
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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4 l2 b1 C+ v7 _& Wwww.csuchen.deChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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( G, r7 J( l$ G- s! x4 @www.csuchen.deIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 人在德国 社区& q$ o4 N: K* L0 v
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. $ W& v9 `7 g* A7 k0 q
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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2 N y5 ^4 `4 n* a0 n( b. Y* W5 rwww.csuchen.deThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys. |
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发表于 2010-8-19 07:33
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