[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

Ampelmann

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年9 w4 B2 O: x, I5 n; W  a$ T/ f- x
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源：中新社   黄瑞www.csuchen.de* H7 s/ Y! ^: n5 @
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
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　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。
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# G7 i* J; E1 ~: K( [" Z3 _3 I! O人在德国 社区　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
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8 T* q1 J6 R1 \( E5 b% |5 F8 [　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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; S3 q" o  X8 Q/ |$ ^# U9 l& `　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。www.csuchen.de) A" z6 e' b0 u" \8 L' _
　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。( \4 k5 R8 L4 |8 V
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　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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( n8 P5 G! S  z# h0 F9 fRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters
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( s; u; g0 G5 t; r+ T( dwww.csuchen.deBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. : K2 s& r: B. ]2 l4 l! x. `

3 @  [6 v5 C+ m9 A& [2 k- xA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 0 X2 \: }/ r# k+ N! U! B; O
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5 g; R7 a: p. Z, w) R. E0 d
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China.
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers.
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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; Y5 n# l6 N% F) C# EIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 人在德国 社区% g7 d. ]! d& z7 d7 K

& _; [& n: x' |0 E3 s5 }% O" v9 vGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. % @: y: c; j- J  j8 y

' `2 ?% f! W  \5 L, I# bUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 人在德国 社区, v% r& K; S9 d. f8 L
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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4 E8 j* Y- J# E5 FIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 9 T5 u9 o- t" S& s

0 \8 ?# k! l- y0 u9 }International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.