[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

Ampelmann

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
2 W  F, E+ G0 S2 w2 p2010年08月19日 14:15   来源：中新社   黄瑞$ |3 J% g9 v* ?: _% X" ~0 }

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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。' ^. T. _0 g6 T' P
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　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。www.csuchen.de# r4 E  @8 @. H$ q8 A. F% r+ q' V& }9 y  E
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　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。4 J5 U3 P: D9 h  s
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　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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  O7 t2 t7 u) l- Q5 `0 a- T, j　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。8 ]6 S. y* r; X( O
　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。www.csuchen.de* b1 S& ~$ B: h) K& A+ f! n2 k

7 y- f; u. @# {7 _& j; M) p3 D2 T　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
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, v1 R4 G& T$ U% d" k1 ]/ `! ~: DRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters$ e- f/ Y2 r' K$ t  t: B/ W# E
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 W$ y1 c8 f( g

) l* w/ ?9 m# ^; _2 D3 T4 a8 R& HA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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  Y( V( Y% c9 ]* P: T7 CLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 M( J- K) `  i. G* G

! }' b3 M9 Z( k2 o( J/ cAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 人在德国 社区: c. u0 d6 S/ l6 Z9 v' }9 E
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter.
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/ L7 b) E& l! F) dThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. - B7 G. a2 V8 a  l) m3 _/ m4 P
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ( c) _" k2 j$ w+ m

7 N) z( q9 C$ n' J1 ?6 G1 wIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. % g6 t9 N& y7 q4 d/ ]

. d2 n1 N# h2 L# e% c' ]Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 人在德国 社区: d' d$ }3 Y9 C& j6 Y
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office.   K9 B7 s+ ?. e- K1 r% L; ~8 [- f

, R( u+ F; i# b, r1 U) J% a7 lwww.csuchen.deUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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, W4 A2 ?! `  P2 b! |) d5 }China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". . |5 E4 _% s) b/ ]' F- e

6 ^9 O/ A. b& q1 _2 Twww.csuchen.deIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 E; f( u' p$ W( g9 R! u

# ^4 f. t$ }* @( ?8 uInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & M# W) J; i1 L1 t* l# J5 \% ^( O; T
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ; e* K( _. x, \2 e0 q

. h8 {" @( R; V+ K# J( uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - F& r- A6 d# z5 x2 L! t$ S$ `1 T# }6 Q

5 g( e9 ]3 R6 fThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.